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Cox From The Land Of Lincoln

Opinion Journal
February 23, 2007

In today's Political Diary:

  • Forbesian
  • Keeping the Lid on Taiwan
  • Hillary Rodham Kerry (Quote of the Day I)
  • Regicide (Quote of the Day II)
  • Running Out of Excuses

Cox from the Land of Lincoln

Here's a Republican candidate for president you've probably never heard of: John Cox of Illinois. Mr. Cox is a self-made millionaire businessman and former head of the Cook County Republicans who's been stumping in New Hampshire and Iowa trying to capitalize on the disaffection that voters feel toward the big three: Messrs. Giuliani, Romney and McCain.

Mr. Cox stopped by our offices this week and I must say he has a good story to tell. He's trying to run a Steve Forbes-style renegade campaign and is promoting the Forbes constellation of issues. These include health savings accounts, term limits, private Social Security accounts, free trade, pro-life and government spending control. He's even to the right of the flat tax-loving Mr. Forbes on tax reform: He wants to abolish the IRS income tax system. "It's my No. 1 issue, by far," he says of his travels through the hinterlands of Iowa and New Hampshire.

It would be easy to write Mr. Cox off as a political non-entity except that he has attracted committee chairs in 30 states and has 130 volunteer county chairmen in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In New Hampshire, he even has Pat Buchanan's old office space. And he's already spent close to $1 million, with more money to pump in -- though he quickly adds: "I don't have the dollars to kick in that Forbes had."

"The Republican primary voters in these early primary states are despondent that there's no real conservative in the top tier of candidates," he says. On that issue, I suspect he's on the mark, and don't be surprised if a conservative emerges from the second tier of candidates to take on the big boys. That's likely to be Newt Gingrich or perhaps Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas, but you may also start hearing the name John Cox a lot more in the months ahead.
--Stephen Moore


Undire Straits

If there's one flashpoint that could give the next U.S. president a wholly new set of headaches, it's Taiwan. The island nation will hold a presidential election next year, and until recently the leading contender was a member of the mainland-origin Kuomintang Party known as "Mr. Clean." Mr. Clean, whose real name is Ma Jing-yeou, was indicted on embezzlement charges this month based on his long stint as Taipei mayor. The news comes just as a similar rash of corruption scandals has also sullied the second term of President Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.

Now the presidential race is up in the air, along with the perennial tug of war between the independence forces and those who seek reunification across the Taiwan Strait. But an emerging dark horse is Wang Jin-pyng, currently the head of Taiwan's legislature -- the equivalent of America's Speaker of the House -- and Mr. Ma's chief rival within the traditionally anti-communist but pro-unification Kuomintang.

Mr. Wang, a native Taiwanese, is regarded as a pragmatist and honest broker. He also enjoys bipartisan support and has served as a presidential envoy to the U.S. to promote national defense. More importantly, he's neither pro-independence nor pro-unification -- but instead criticizes the whole debate for hindering opportunities on the mainland for Taiwanese investors.

Nothing would likely make Beijing and Washington happier than if Mr. Wang became the new front-runner, given their desire to avoid any upset to the status quo on Taiwan. He says he won't issue a decision until after the annual Lantern Festival in early March. But he barely bothered to bat down news reports that he would soon make a visit to Beijing to give a few speeches and engage in glad-handing with mainland leaders. That's a good sign he intends to run.

Dana White

Quote of the Day I

"Clinton's sclerotic firmness may be chronic, a consequence of the sort of campaign she appears to be running -- which is to say, the sort of campaign in which you put a ravening horde of consultants in a room and have them discuss whether you should say "I was wrong" about Iraq instead of making up your own mind and speaking the obvious truth. In other words, she's running against the Kerry campaign by imitating the Kerry campaign. She's fighting the last war" -- Time magazine columnist Joe Klein.

Quote of the Day II

"[David] Geffen was on to something with his passing mention of the fact that Obama is not from "the Bush royal family" or the "Clinton royal family." Regardless of what you think of Bill Clinton's presidency, or his wife's talent, the dynastic aspect of Hillary Clinton's candidacy is an issue that will increasingly come to occupy center stage in this campaign. Is the country prepared to be governed, potentially, for 28 years by two families who alternate turns in the White House? The Clinton campaign appears unwilling to acknowledge this concern. The candidate likes talking to audiences about whether the nation is ready for a female president. But the question of whether the country is ready to perpetuate the dueling-family reign by voting in the former president's spouse is disingenuously left off the table" -- editorial in the Los Angeles Times.

Rehab Nation

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom is the latest in a long line of political and public figures who have decided to deal with scandal by publicly checking into a rehabilitation center for alcohol or drug dependency. In Mr. Newsom's case his epiphany about his drinking problem came after he was forced to admit having an affair with the wife of his then-chief of staff. In a TV interview this week, Mr. Newsom, who is seeking a second term, was obliged to denounce as "gratuitously erroneous" recent reports that he also abused cocaine.

Barbara Kellerman, a lecturer at the Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, says the rules for a public apology by a well-known person are clear and simple: Acknowledge your mistake, accept responsibility, express regret, say it will never happen again -- and make it fast.

But she told the San Francisco Chronicle that Mr. Newsom added an unnecessary wrinkle to his scandal recovery: rehab remorse. The problem is that, genuine or not, it's been overdone. Consider that just within the last year, a trip to a rehab center has been part of the public apology ritual for former Rep. Mark Foley of House Interngate infamy, Rep. Patrick Kennedy after a traffic accident, actor Mel Gibson after an anti-Semitic rant, actor Isaiah Washington of "Grays Anatomy" after an anti-gay rant, and "Seinfeld" comedian Michael Richards after an anti-black tirade.

"It's a joke," Ms. Kellerman says of the rehab explanation. "Anybody who is serious thinks of that as more funny than anything else. I think for a public official, that's not generally the way to go. I think most people dismiss that out of hand."

Pollsters confirm that despite the benefit to the public of learning about the existence of rehab programs for various kinds of addictions, public figures are now serious in danger of wearing out the apology-rehab strategy.

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